Brown bear cubs in the Taiga Forest in Finland. From the Daily Mail of the UK.
Wis. Dems: Internal Polls Show Us Winning The State Senate from Talking Points Memo
See Greg Sargent's comments on this below near the bottom of the post.
"Going into the home stretch of the Wisconsin state Senate recalls, state Democratic Party chairman Mike Tate outlined the party's get-out-the-vote efforts on a conference call with reporters Tuesday -- and claimed that the party's internal polling of the eight races up for grabs shows the Dems favored to win the majority."
UP-FRONT POLL LIBERALS NEED TO BE AWARE OF
U.S. Political Ideology Stable With Conservatives Leading from Gallup
"Americans' political ideology at the midyear point of 2011 looks similar to 2009 and 2010, with 41% self-identifying as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 21% as liberal."
This poll shows a key dynamic most liberals do not want to deal with: for every 1 self-identified liberal American, there are four others who ientify themselves as something other than liberal. Indeed, amongst that latter group, there are two self-identified conservatives for every liberal. Now, one can quibble until doomsday about the meaning of these words, about the popular policies liberals espouse, and about how what's needed is a truly liberal president or presidential candidate to make the case for liberalism. But as of right now, I can't see how Obama (and many other Democrats) can possibly win next year unless he (and they) wins decisively amongst moderates.
Now, in the light of these numbers, let us segue to Jared Bernstein's commentary on the debt debacle. A lengthy excerpt is in order:
Lousy Negotiating Skills Are Not the Problem from Jared Bernstein, former Chief Economist to Vice President Joseph Biden
"If too many Americans don’t believe in or understand what government does to help them, to offset recessions, to protect their security in retirement and in hard times, to maintain the infrastructure, to provide educational opportunities and health care decent enough to offset the disadvantages so many are born with…if those functions are unknown, underfunded, and/or carried out poorly, why should they care about how much this deal or the next one cuts? Those of us who do care about the above will not defeat those who strive to get rid of it all by becoming better tacticians. We will only find success when a majority of Americans agrees with us that government is something worth fighting for."
Fitch Keeps U.S. AAA Rating, Review Ongoing from Reuters
"Fitch upheld its AAA rating on the United States on Tuesday after lawmakers approved spending cuts to avoid a U.S. default, but it warned the world's largest economy must cut its debt burden to avoid a future downgrade."
Moody's Backs US triple-A Rating; Outlook Negative from Forbes Magazine
"Moody's Investors Service says the United States will retain its triple-A bond rating following passage of legislation to boost the debt ceiling. But the rating agency says it is lowering the outlook for possible future changes to negative."
Despite Pulling Debt Ceiling Debate Rightward, Tea Party Activists Slam House-Passed Deal (Jon Ward) from the Huffington Post
""The influence was more from pressure from the outside, rather than in-the-room pressure and influence," said a senior House Republican aide. But, the aide added, "the Tea Party had some of their most powerful influence working with or through Beltway-type organizations like FreedomWorks, Americans for Prosperity, and Let Freedom Ring … Even the Tea Party needs some 'establishment' help to get things done.""
Tea Party Turns on Debt Compromisers (Tim Mak) from the Frum Forum
"The debt ceiling compromise was “political suicide,” said Judson Phillips, the founder of Tea Party Nation, after the vote. “We put them in power and now we’re asking ourselves, ‘Why did we do that?’”"
Why the GOP Turned its Back on Defense (Ajay Ravichandran) from the Frum Forum
"One important consequence of the recent debt deal is the way it has highlighted a growing divide within the Republican Party between budget-cutters and defense hawks. Eli Lake’s recent piece in The New Republic offers a comprehensive look at how the shift in the GOP foreign policy debate is playing out in the party’s presidential race. Lake points out that many prominent figures in the GOP and the conservative movement now view the defense budget as a source of potential savings."
Fiscal Conservatives Barred from Supercommittee (Updated): Will Senate Republicans be Able to Prevent Tax Hikes? from the Weekly Standard
"The debt ceiling deal will pass the Senate early this afternoon. No suspense there. But the vote will be worth watching for another reason: Three Republican Senate sources tell TWS that senators who vote against the deal will be ineligible to serve on the so-called “supercommittee” for deficit reduction that the legislation creates."
This could be the ONLY good news to come out in the last 24 hours as we look ahead to what the Super Committee will do next year. Will this rule ultimately include Dem "No" votes in the Senate too? Also -- what about the House members who already voted no on the deal? Will they be blocked too? UPDATE: McConnell later denied the story. But, as noted in the Huffington Post, given the role of seniority in both chambers, it is unlikely that many of the rabid deficit hawks will make onto the super committee. As the Post notes: "In actuality, however, those lawmakers likely won't be in consideration for the super-committee as they are either younger members -- Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) -- or individuals whose legislative purviews don't necessarily include budget matters -- Sens. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) or (R-S.C.)."
Swing District Members Most Likely to Vote for Deal (Scott Bland and Peter Bell) from the National Journal
"The center held. House members in both parties from more competitive seats combined forces on Monday evening to pass a compromise debt-ceiling increase, while members from safe seats provided most of the votes against the package. There was a clear relationship between the political safety of districts and the level of support for the Budget Control Act, which passed 269-161."
As regular readers know, I think the downsides to the debt deal were enormous for Obama and the Dems. However, there have been a rising number of progressive or independent defenders of the deal. Several examples follow:
In Defense Of Obama (LiberalProgressive) at Daily Kos
The best defense I've heard so far -- there's much more here than this excerpt. Read the whole thing.
"President Obama is a politician with long term instincts. Obama is no accidental President. That is what Republicans fear the most and it is for that reason that they are going for broke to attempt to deny him a second term by magnifying his bouts with ineffectiveness."
Obama's Pyrrhic Defeat (Andrew Sullivan) from the Daily Beast
"If the battle of 2012 is between low taxes or high taxes, the GOP wins. But if it's fought on whether we should balance the budget solely by spending cuts, often for the elderly and needy, while asking nothing from the wealthy, then Obama wins. "
How the GOP Lost on the Debt Deal (Daniel Markovits) from the Los Angeles Times
Again, there's more to this argument than is captured in this one excerpt.
"In the bigger picture, however, the debt deal represents a substantial success for President Obama and the Democrats. It does indeed impose cuts that will slow the economic recovery and unjustly burden working Americans. But the deal is much nearer an affirmation of the president's core commitments than a surrender. Moreover, the deal that the president got is much, much less bad, from the progressive point of view, than a coldly rational observer would have predicted. The reason the president beat the odds is simple: The Republicans blinked..."
Gallup: Obama's Not Losing his Base from Politico
"Despite much grumbling from the left in Congress and online, President Barack Obama isn’t losing his base and has largely maintained his liberal support, a new Gallup Poll found."
I hate to say it -- but I don't think this level of support will hold for long. The magnitude of the defeat (and Obama's unfortunate role in it) is only beginning to set in for many supporters. The liberal/progressive post-mortums on the debt deal (the items above notwithstanding) have been almost universally negative with Obama's performance being especially singled out for criticism.
Winning the August Recess (Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake) from the Washington Post
"With a similarly volatile electorate seemingly waiting for them at home, how Members of Congress process the unhappiness with Washington — assuming that’s the message they hear over the next month — could have a broad impact on the legislative agenda moving forward."
Since 2008, the Dems have shown little capacity for effective messaging. In contrast, this is the one thing the GOP has actually done quite well. Cillizza says the Dems are going to go after the Ryan plan; my sense is that events (the debt bill) have made this approach obsolete. How can they seriously argue against that plan when so many just voted in favor of most of the fundamental assumptions that undergird that plan? In contrast, the Tea Party folks will find it easy to hang almost every negative piece of that legislation on either the Dems, Obama or both. Sad.
Class Warfare in Wisconsin: Are Dems About to Make History? (Greg Sargent) from the Washington Post
"Wisconsin Dems may be on the verge of taking back the state senate. Putting that outcome aside, though, Tate shared some new numbers about the level of grassroots energy in the state that are eye-opening in their own right, and suggest that labor and Dems have already accomplished something historic."
IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM NUGGET!!
Mossad Behind Tehran Assassinations, Says Source (Ulrike Putz) from Der Spiegel [of Germany in English]
"One atomic researcher after the other has died in a series of recent murders in Iran. Is Israel's Mossad trying to sabotage the construction of a nuclear bomb with the attacks? Officials in Jerusalem aren't denying anything. Israeli military generals are even more hawkish, and their calls for air strikes on Iran are growing louder."
Some interesting commentary from Foreign Policy Magazine is HERE.
DOG PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET!!
The Phenomenon of Grieving Dogs: The Ultimate Loyalty from The Week
"Living up to the title of man's best friend, these dogs face danger and death to stay near the ones they love."
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