The New Republican Party

More Republicans viewing Putin favorably from Politico

"While the Russian president still has a net un-favorability rating among Republicans, his standing has improved dramatically – from a net negative of 66 points to a mere 10 points.  By comparison, only 17 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of President Barack Obama, the December poll found. Obama’s net negative among Republicans is 64 points – significantly worse than the party’s take on Putin."

What you have here is definitive proof (if any was still needed) that GOP voters have become (using a term I hate) unprecedentedly "tribal" -- which is to say they vote based on who their party nominates, not on any real issue or principle.  The issues and principles will shift to whatever the candidate advocates.  Republican lawmakers and talking heads will follow as well.  What this means looking ahead is that the segment of the electorate that is "persuadable" in the next cycle is VERY SMALL.  The only thing that unifies the Republican Party is ... their opposition to the Democratic Party.  They will exercise the power or no one will.

COLD WAR HISTORY NUGGET!!

Reviled by Many Russians, Mikhail Gorbachev Still Has Lots to Say from the New York Times
"In an interview, Mr. Gorbachev shrugged off the fact that 25 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, he remains among the most reviled men in Russia. “It is freedom of expression,” he said. Yet the official line denigrating traditional democracy, combined with the very idea that he should face trial, obviously irks him, so he churns out articles, essays and books about the need to enhance freedom in Russia."

The Conflicts Frozen in Time in Russia

The Soviet Union Is Falling Apart Again (Leonid Bershidsky) from Bloomberg View
"Armenia and Azerbaijan have announced a truce after three days of fierce fighting in the secessionist region of Nagorno-Karabakh, but the flare-up is proof that the post-Soviet frozen conflicts are not really frozen. At any moment, they can be ignited by the realignment of international alliances and loyalties, and people will start dying again. There are four post-Soviet frozen conflicts."

Russia's Failing Economy

What Russia's Failing Economy Means For Putin's Legacy And Military Ambitions from the Huffington Post
"The WorldPost spoke with Sergey Aleksahenko, former deputy chairman of the Russian Central Bank."

Russia's Gradual Meltdown

Russians’ Anxiety Swells as Oil Prices Collapse from the New York Times
"The last time oil prices dropped so low and stayed there, in the 1980s, the Soviet Union disintegrated. Steadily rising prices since 2000 have lifted Russia out of poverty and economic chaos, buoying the prosperity of many Russians with it. ... With the federal budget approved in December based on oil at $50 a barrel, Anton Siluanov, the finance minister, announced that the country faced a budget deficit of about $40 billion, and ministries were ordered to cut spending 10 percent. Budgets were similarly guillotined last year."

On Russia's Economy, the Pessimists were Correct

Russia's Impossible Choices (George Friedman) from Real Clear World
"... the Russian economy is facing disaster. These loans are not all that expensive, and they build Russian influence. By announcing that Russia would stop offering them, the Russian government is telegraphing to its public and the world that its situation is as bad as the pessimists have said. ... the decision to cut these loans should be considered in its own right. In suspending these loans, the Russians are cutting one of their major foreign policy tools. During the halcyon days when oil prices were more than $100 a barrel, the Russians used loans to shape the behavior of foreign governments."

Russia’s Economy: Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario

Medvedev: Russia’s Economy Must Prepare for Worst-Case Scenario from Voice of America
"Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said the Russian economy is looking better than one year ago but must prepare for the worst-case scenario as it continues to suffer from low oil prices and the impact of Western sanctions. ... Russia’s economy contracted 3.8 percent last year as oil, its major export, dropped in price by 70 percent to $30 a barrel. Western sanctions against Russia, because of its 2014 annexation of Crimea and continued military backing for rebels in eastern Ukraine, cut off its banks from international credit. The value of the ruble has dropped from a high of 30 to the dollar to around 75."

Russian Economic Downturn: Taking Down the Middle Class

A Dark Cloud Is Descending Over Russia's Economy (Samuel Bendett) from Real Clear World
"A number of economic bubbles, created when the economy heavily depended on oil and gas for its well-being -- such as for example, in real estate -- will burst sooner or later, leading to the collapse of the well-being of many of those who used to consider themselves the Russian middle class."

Russia's Year of Economic Nightmares

8 Shades of Crisis (Peter Hobson) from the Moscow Times [of Russia in English]
"The current shock engulfing Russia is even more serious, Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin told a conference hosted by Vedomosti, a business newspaper, in December. Russia's isolation from the world economy due to sanctions imposed over Moscow's actions in Ukraine last year have worsened the impact of an oil price crash. The Moscow Times looked at eight aspects of the crisis."

No Light at the End of Putin's Tunnel

Putin’s New Prudence (Anders Aslund) from Project Syndicate
"Russia’s economy was stagnating even before the bottom fell out of global oil prices, and most experts expect energy prices to remain low for years. This confronts Putin with a challenge he has never faced: leading Russia at a time when there is no light visible at the end of the tunnel."

Russia's Behavior Keeps NATO Expanding

In the Balkans, NATO has outmuscled Russia from the Economist [of London]
"Montenegro’s accession fills in one of the few remaining gaps in the Western alliance."

Russia's Middle-East Ally Heading for the Exit?

Iran Retreating From Syria Fight (Eli Lake) from Bloomberg View
"... they are seeing significant numbers of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps troops retreat from the Syrian combat zone in recent weeks, following the deaths and wounding of some of top officers in a campaign to retake Idlib Province and other areas lost this year to opposition forces supported by the West and Gulf Arab States. As a result, the Russian-initiated offensive that was launched in September seems to be losing an important ally."

Russian Standards of Living Going into the Dumper

Russians experience first ‘horrible’ sustained decline in living standards in 15 years since Putin became president from the National Post [of Canada]
"Russians are experiencing the first sustained decline in living standards in the 15 years since President Vladimir Putin came to power. The ruble has fallen by half against the dollar, driven by the plunging price of oil, the lifeblood of Russia’s economy. As a result, prices of imported goods have shot up, making tea, instant coffee, children’s clothes and back-to-school backpacks suddenly, jarringly expensive."

TODAY'S BIG NUGGET: A Cold War History Nugget!

The 1983 ‘war scare,’ was real: Soviets feared surprise nuclear attack by U.S. by U.S. (David E. Hoffman) from the Washington Post
"An exercise by NATO prompted fear in the leadership of the Soviet Union that the maneuvers were a cover for a nuclear attack by the United States, triggering a series of unparalleled Soviet military re­sponses, according to newly declassified documents."
One of the biggest near-misses of the Cold War and one that most people, even historians, know little about.  Check out this primary source, the U.S. assessment that concluded the Soviet leadership feared an American nuclear strike in 1983.

Russia and Iran: The New Masters of the Middle East? NOT!

Stop swooning over Putin (Fareed Zakaria) from the Washington Post
"Washington’s foreign policy elites have developed a mind-set that mistakes activity for achievement. They assume that every crisis in the world can and should be solved by a vigorous assertion of U.S. power, preferably military power. Failure to do so is passivity and produces weakness. By this logic, Russia and Iran are the new masters of the Middle East. Never mind that those countries are desperately trying to shore up a sinking ally."

Cold War Ghosts Waiting for Putin in Syria?

Russia Is Repeating Cold War Mistakes in Syria (David Lesch) from Foreign Policy Magazine
"In 1957, the Soviet Union’s ally Egypt intervened in Syria’s messy politics. It didn’t go well. Why does Putin think this time will be different?"

Putin in Syria -- Just Leave Him There

Syria, Obama and Putin (Thomas Friedman) from the New York Times
"Putin stupidly went into Syria looking for a cheap sugar high to show his people that Russia is still a world power. Well, now he’s up a tree. Obama and John Kerry should just leave him up there for a month — him and Assad, fighting ISIS alone — and watch him become public enemy No. 1 in the Sunni Muslim world. “Yo, Vladimir, how’s that working for you?”"

Putin's Wrecker Legacy

Is Putin Winning? (Ross Douthat) from the New York Times
"To be clear: Putin is a Russian nationalist, not the leader of Spectre or the League of Shadows. He doesn’t want chaos for its own sake, and he no doubt believes that a weakened NATO, a divided E.U. and a crumbling Pax Americana are necessary preconditions for his own empire’s return to greatness. But that return seems far out of his reach, and what’s closer to his grasp is something more destructive — a wrecker’s legacy, not Peter the Great’s, in which his own people gain little from his efforts, but the world grows more unstable with every move he makes."
A pretty fair assessment from this right-wing pundit.

Russia's Shrill Nationalism Bodes Ill for the Future

Why Russians Hate America. Again. from the New York Times
"“They keep crossing boundaries only to find that once they are across, it’s only logical to cross the next one,” he said. “That’s not a strategy. That’s a behavioral pattern.” Others believe that the government is unraveling, and that the shrillness of the nationalist narrative is a harbinger."

Geopolitical Outcomes as Oil Prices Drop

From Russia to Iran, the consequences of the global oil bust (Fareed Zakaria) from the Washington Post
"We are witnessing a historic fall in the price of oil, down more than 50 percent in less than a year. When a similar drop happened in the 1980s, the Soviet Union collapsed. What will it mean now?"