The Neocons WAKE UP to the Trump Threat

Neocons declare war on Trump from Politico
"Steill and Boot — who also has advised Rubio — call Trump "singularly ill-equipped to manage the resulting turmoil" from his policies. .... Cohen also added that he doesn't oppose Trump solely on foreign policy grounds, calling the Manhattan mogul “the most dangerous demagogue in American politics in my lifetime.”
One of the most preposterous things in this article is that it mentions William Kristol leading the charge of the neocons.  KRISTOL -- who discovered and pushed hard to have Sarah Palin put on as McCain's running mate back in '08! Rampant brainlessness on display this week from the putative intellectuals within the Republican Party. -- Nuggetsman

Obama BIG foreign policy goal: Avoiding Stupid Wars

On Foreign Policy, Obama Has the Right Target (David Ignatius) from Real Clear Politics
"Obama sometimes seems overmatched in a world of power-players such as Putin and China's President Xi Jinping. But in his foreign policy, Obama has been experimenting with the hard questions: How does America calibrate its power to the realities of the world, after its unsuccessful invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan ... Obama has sometimes fired blanks in his foreign policy. But he's shooting at the right target."

TODAY'S BIG NUGGET: What Really Happened in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars?

The Truth About the Wars (Daniel Bolger) from the New York Times
"The surge legend is soothing, especially for military commanders like me. We can convince ourselves that we did our part, and a few more diplomats or civilian leaders should have done theirs. Similar myths no doubt comforted Americans who fought under the command of Robert E. Lee in the Civil War or William C. Westmoreland in Vietnam. But as a three-star general who spent four years trying to win this thing — and failing — I now know better."

Obama's Limited Engagement with ISIS Strikes a Careful Balance

Bipartisan Support for Obama’s Military Campaign Against ISIS from the Pew Research Center
"Dems Concerned about ‘Going Too Far,’ Reps ‘Not Far Enough’."
Now, let's be clear: if you were to listen to the pundit class and the neo-con/liberal interventionist blatherers that have been flooding the media in the last two months, you would have thought that Obama was in some la-la kookoo land of his own when it came to his approach to ISIS (and Syria and Iran and others).  However, as this item suggests (and as I have long believed) Obama is not alone.  The great majority of the American people are with him on this!  Many don't like ANY of the choices we are faced with in the international realm -- but Obama's caution and limited engagement strikes a difficult and carefully calibrated response that matches up with the American people's mood.  Consider where we would be if John McCain and his ilk were now in charge?  (1)  We would still have substantial forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and sustaining and inflicting the casualties that we had for the last 12 years; (2) we would be deeply involved in (let's count them) Syria, Lybia, Egypt (on Mubarek's side no less) and Ukraine; and (3) we would be at war with Iran over their nuclear program!  

The Deadly Logic of Intervention in Syria

What Going to War in Syria Would Really Mean for the U.S. (Conor Friedersdorf) from the Atlantic
"A brutal dictator, a violent terrorist group, and the morally fraught tradeoff that interventionists face."

When Terrorists Fail ... and When they Begin to Know It

The New Battle Against Evil (David Ignatius) from the Washington Post 
"The life and death of Osama bin Laden illustrate why the terrorist strategy is destined to fail — if civilized nations maintain their will. Obama authorized the mission that pursued the al-Qaeda leader to his lair in Abbottabad, Pakistan. But in the months before his death, bin Laden knew he had failed."

WORLD WAR I NUGGET!!

Just How Likely Is Another World War? (Graham Allison) from the Atlantic 
"Assessing the similarities and differences between 1914 and 2014."

This is a weakly conceived article that communicates little and concludes less. My argument is technical. When the first German V2 rocket hit Cheswick, England in 1944, historical comparisons of major wars became largely irrelevant. Up to that time, every weapon had some defense, even if marginally effective. There is no workable defense against missile strikes (the Iron Dome scores only 20% against rockets far less sophisticated than the V2). China has nuclear tipped missiles. China can and will continue to expropriate resources within the nine dash line simple because they can. Look for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to arm their missiles with nukes over the coming years; and who can blame them. But the article also falls apart geographically. There is certainly as much possibility of a major war in oil regions such as Saudi Arabia, West Africa or Russia, none of which the author mentions. Any war affecting such massive oil reserves will be global by default. I appreciate that people are desperate to avert future wars by not repeating the mistakes of the past, but the world has changed more in the past century than it has in the past five millennia.

Posted by - hopeandespair

The Moral Equation with US Intervention

Did Libya Prove War Hawks Right or Wrong? (Conor Friedersdorf) from The Atlantic
"The unintended consequences of military intervention are nearly impossible to predict."
The trick here is to also realize that the consequences of military NON-INTERVENTION are also almost impossible to predict.  The implicit assumption here is that, if the US intervenes, we own the consequences of our intervention.  However, as Bill Clinton can attest concerning the US role in the Rwandan genocide, inaction also has its consequences and that doing nothing in no way gets the US off the hook.  If we as a country are going to so build up our military that ours is far and away the most powerful military in the world, we own both sides.  Most countries in the world don't bother having or even pretending to have the capacity to intervene the way the US does and the way it can.  Thus, in my view, we are uniquely on the hook in global hot spots -- and yet we like to pretend that we're not.

Looking Back on the Libyan War

Learning the Wrong Lessons From the Libyan War (Daniel Larison) from the American Conservative
"The article never mentions that the new Libyan government was firmly opposed to the deployment of a foreign stabilization force. This suited the intervening governments well enough, since there was no appetite in any Western country for another prolonged occupation of a Muslim country."

What We Need Now from the War Hawks of a By-Gone Day...

Fool Me Once (Jamelle Bouie) from Slate
"Paul Wolfowitz, Bill Kristol, and their fellow neocons botched Iraq. Now they want to tell you what they think. Ignore them."

War is NOT Folly -- But a Good Economic Development Program!

In the Long Run, Wars Make Us Safer and Richer (Ian Morris) from the Washington Post
"So yes, war is hell — but have you considered the alternatives? When looking upon the long run of history, it becomes clear that through 10,000 years of conflict, humanity has created larger, more organized societies that have greatly reduced the risk that their members will die violently."

Stealth Drones and How They May Change Warfare

The Killer Drone Goes Stealthy—Just in Time for a New Cold War (Zach Rosenberg) from the Daily Beast
"Forget the Predators, the iconic unmanned aircraft of the last war. The next generation of robot planes will be deadly, and very, very difficult to find."

China-US Relations and Future Prospects for War?

China-U.S. Relations: The Myth of the 'Thucydides Trap' (Wei Zongyou) from The Diplomat
"The fear is that as its power increases, China will eventually choose to challenge or even overturn the existing international order that has contributed so much to its rapid rise, making a war between China and the U.S. likely. ... Still, for all the rationales for the Thucydides trap argument, I would offer at least three reasons for optimism."

Ukraine Prepares for War

Ukraine Prepares for War (Alexander J. Motyl) from CNN
"... even if Putin and Shoigu were being sincere, Moscow has lost all credibility among most Ukrainians and the international community. After three weeks of aggressive Russian behavior and the possibility of existential annihilation, Ukrainians, like Israelis, prefer to think in terms of worst-case scenarios"

The Big Picture for Iraq War Veterans

A Legacy of Pain and Pride (Rajiv Chandrasekaran) from the Washington Post 
"A nationwide poll of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans reveals the profound and enduring effects of war on the 2.6 million who have served."