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| DAYLEE PICTURE: A Nicobar Pigeon in New York's Central Park. From National Geographic. |
Sunday, February 22, 2015
News Nuggets 1509
TODAY'S BIG NUGGET: The Baby Bubble ... and the Big Pop That Follows
The Economics of Global Population Decline (George Friedman) from Real Clear World
"... the argument is that the contraction of the population, particularly during the transitional period before the older generations die off, will leave a relatively small number of workers supporting a very large group of retirees, particularly as life expectancy in advanced industrial countries increases. In addition, the debts incurred by the older generation would be left to the smaller, younger generation to pay off. Given this, the expectation is major economic dislocation. In addition, there is the view that a country's political power will contract with the population, based on the assumption that the military force that could be deployed - and paid for - with a smaller population would contract."
"... the argument is that the contraction of the population, particularly during the transitional period before the older generations die off, will leave a relatively small number of workers supporting a very large group of retirees, particularly as life expectancy in advanced industrial countries increases. In addition, the debts incurred by the older generation would be left to the smaller, younger generation to pay off. Given this, the expectation is major economic dislocation. In addition, there is the view that a country's political power will contract with the population, based on the assumption that the military force that could be deployed - and paid for - with a smaller population would contract."
Where Are Oil Prices Headed!?
Get Ready for $10 Oil (Gary Shilling) from Bloomberg View
"At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why."
"At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why."
Europe's Sclerotic Economy: Where's the "Recovery"?
Italy is Europe’s ticking time bomb (Matt O'Brien) from the Washington Post
"What's gone wrong? Well, everything. They all have supply and demand problems. That first part means that it's too hard to start a business, too hard to expand one and too hard to fire people. That makes their economies sclerotic even in the good times, and doomed in the bad ones."
"What's gone wrong? Well, everything. They all have supply and demand problems. That first part means that it's too hard to start a business, too hard to expand one and too hard to fire people. That makes their economies sclerotic even in the good times, and doomed in the bad ones."
The Long-Standing World Order ... Feeling the Stress Now
Post-Cold War Order Is Breaking Down (Fyodor Lukyanov) from the Moscow Times [in English]
"The bitter feud in Ukraine is only one manifestation of how the world order is falling apart. The Islamic State is an even more striking example. It is not only challenging the established order in the Middle East by erasing borders, but is also exhibiting an increasingly savage cruelty, frightening its opponents with horrific public executions. In general, a medieval spirit reigns, with its internecine wars and in which the only great strategy, if one exists at all, is to indulge the passion for blood."
"The bitter feud in Ukraine is only one manifestation of how the world order is falling apart. The Islamic State is an even more striking example. It is not only challenging the established order in the Middle East by erasing borders, but is also exhibiting an increasingly savage cruelty, frightening its opponents with horrific public executions. In general, a medieval spirit reigns, with its internecine wars and in which the only great strategy, if one exists at all, is to indulge the passion for blood."
Europe REALLY Needs America to Stay Engaged
Exit America, Europe's Trust Engine? (Jan Techau) from Real Clear World
"The United States succeeded as Europe's benevolent hegemon because it was able to pacify rivaling European states and instill mutual trust in them. That role is still needed."
"The United States succeeded as Europe's benevolent hegemon because it was able to pacify rivaling European states and instill mutual trust in them. That role is still needed."
How to Respond to Putin
Keep Putin talking to save Ukraine (David A. Andelman) from USA Today
"... the Russian leader doesn't spend any time at all out there in the real world — even his real world, which is the first place the effect of sanctions might become apparent. Putin is deeply isolated, intelligence officials believe, and speaks only to a very small circle of like-minded friends and advisers."
"... the Russian leader doesn't spend any time at all out there in the real world — even his real world, which is the first place the effect of sanctions might become apparent. Putin is deeply isolated, intelligence officials believe, and speaks only to a very small circle of like-minded friends and advisers."
More on Putin's Past Coming to Light
Putin was a 'lazy, drunken spy' who 'had a facelift' and 'beat his former wife', according to TV documentary from the Daily Mail [of the UK]
"A documentary on Vladimir Putin claims he was a 'drunken groper' in 1980s. The programme 'Putin the Man' aired in Germany on Tuesday evening. The makers used Stasi police files and interviews with former KGB officers. It branded him a 'lazy, drunken spy' during his time at Dresden field office. The documentary also claimed he underwent a secret facelift in 2010."
"A documentary on Vladimir Putin claims he was a 'drunken groper' in 1980s. The programme 'Putin the Man' aired in Germany on Tuesday evening. The makers used Stasi police files and interviews with former KGB officers. It branded him a 'lazy, drunken spy' during his time at Dresden field office. The documentary also claimed he underwent a secret facelift in 2010."
Ukraine -- Where Historical Analogy is Appropriate and Where it is Not
Ukraine Is NOT Munich (Robert Merry) from the National Interest
"The Munich analogy is so overworked and clichéd by now that one would think that even Stephens might move on to something more vivid and telling. After all, as Yale’s Paul Kennedy pointed out in a penetrating National Interest article in 2010, the appeasement epithet has been used to bludgeon the kinds of foreign-policy ideas and approaches that, in history, have contributed significantly to peace and stability."
"The Munich analogy is so overworked and clichéd by now that one would think that even Stephens might move on to something more vivid and telling. After all, as Yale’s Paul Kennedy pointed out in a penetrating National Interest article in 2010, the appeasement epithet has been used to bludgeon the kinds of foreign-policy ideas and approaches that, in history, have contributed significantly to peace and stability."
Obama and Truman -- Looking Back to Look Forward
Obama’s legacy will be like Truman’s (Neal Gabler) from the Boston Globe
"When you compare Truman’s and Barack Obama’s presidencies, the similarities are striking, which should serve as a bracing reminder to all those now dismissing Obama."
Some may know Gabler's work from his award-winning biography of Walt Disney.
"When you compare Truman’s and Barack Obama’s presidencies, the similarities are striking, which should serve as a bracing reminder to all those now dismissing Obama."
Some may know Gabler's work from his award-winning biography of Walt Disney.
The Merits of Obamacare
Why Obamacare Will Win (Sam Baker) from National Journal
"The White House has more ways to win at the Supreme Court than its challengers."
"The White House has more ways to win at the Supreme Court than its challengers."
Obamacare Critics: Running Out of Amo
Guy Who Gets Paid to Say Obamacare Doesn’t Work Can’t Find a Single True Fact to Support His Case (Jonathan Chait) from New York Magazine
"Conservatives are talking much less than they used to about Obamacare, but they are saying more or less the same things, treating the law as a costly and obvious failure. What’s most striking is how oblivious most of them remain not only to measures of the law’s success, but even to the broad parameters of its objectives."
"Conservatives are talking much less than they used to about Obamacare, but they are saying more or less the same things, treating the law as a costly and obvious failure. What’s most striking is how oblivious most of them remain not only to measures of the law’s success, but even to the broad parameters of its objectives."
GOP 2016 Contenders: Pledging Allegiance to Charlatans and Cranks
Cranking Up for 2016 (Paul Krugman) from the New York Times
"Scott Walker, the governor of Wisconsin, is said to be a rising contender for the Republican presidential nomination. So, on Wednesday, he did what, these days, any ambitious Republican must, and pledged allegiance to charlatans and cranks."
"Scott Walker, the governor of Wisconsin, is said to be a rising contender for the Republican presidential nomination. So, on Wednesday, he did what, these days, any ambitious Republican must, and pledged allegiance to charlatans and cranks."
American History? Politics is More Important than What Actually Happened
AP U.S. History controversy becomes a debate on America (Adam Lerner) from Politico
"An advanced high school U.S. history course has become the subject of an academic proxy war over what some consider a quasi-sacred national principle: American exceptionalism. The simmering national debate over Advanced Placement U.S. History, an optional high-school course whose final exam can earn students college credit, boiled over this week when an Oklahoma lawmaker sought to replace recommended course guidelines with his own."
"An advanced high school U.S. history course has become the subject of an academic proxy war over what some consider a quasi-sacred national principle: American exceptionalism. The simmering national debate over Advanced Placement U.S. History, an optional high-school course whose final exam can earn students college credit, boiled over this week when an Oklahoma lawmaker sought to replace recommended course guidelines with his own."
The GOP's Eudcational Mission: Making being ignorant the equivalent of being educated
Five ways the GOP is valiantly trying to make Americans as dumb as possible (Amanda Marcotte) from Salon
"In South Dakota, Republicans once again pushed for a bill that would “allow” teachers to “question” evolution in the classroom, which is a fancy way of saying that teachers would be permitted to treat being ignorant as the equivalent of being educated."
"In South Dakota, Republicans once again pushed for a bill that would “allow” teachers to “question” evolution in the classroom, which is a fancy way of saying that teachers would be permitted to treat being ignorant as the equivalent of being educated."
Scandalmongers: Already Working on Hillary
Among the Hillary Haters (Hanna Rossin) from the Atlantic
"Can a new, professionalized generation of scandalmongers uncover more dirt on the Clintons—without triggering a backlash?"
"Can a new, professionalized generation of scandalmongers uncover more dirt on the Clintons—without triggering a backlash?"
Jeb -- Confronting the Bush Legacy
Jeb Bush and the Ghost of W (Steve Kornacki) from MSNBC
"Fundamentally, George W. Bush was a candidate of the GOP base, and that status was essential to his impressive electoral achievement. Jeb is not a candidate of the GOP base and there’s reason to suspect he never will be. If that keeps him from winning, he’ll have his older brother to thank for it."
"Fundamentally, George W. Bush was a candidate of the GOP base, and that status was essential to his impressive electoral achievement. Jeb is not a candidate of the GOP base and there’s reason to suspect he never will be. If that keeps him from winning, he’ll have his older brother to thank for it."
Jeb's Bad Debute as a Foreign Policy "Expert"
Jeb Bungles Facts, Pronunciation in His Big National Security Speech from the Daily Beast
"Trying to sound presidential, Bush instead came off like a confused former governor. Likely presidential candidate Jeb Bush delivered a nervous, uncertain speech on national security Wednesday, full of errors and confusion. Seeking to differentiate himself from his father and brother, both former presidents, the former governor of Florida asserted, “I am my own man.” But the man who emerged on stage at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs did not sound well-versed in foreign policy. ... Bush’s clunky, rushed delivery paled in comparison to the hazy facts in the speech and vague answers he gave during a Q&A session following his remarks."
"Trying to sound presidential, Bush instead came off like a confused former governor. Likely presidential candidate Jeb Bush delivered a nervous, uncertain speech on national security Wednesday, full of errors and confusion. Seeking to differentiate himself from his father and brother, both former presidents, the former governor of Florida asserted, “I am my own man.” But the man who emerged on stage at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs did not sound well-versed in foreign policy. ... Bush’s clunky, rushed delivery paled in comparison to the hazy facts in the speech and vague answers he gave during a Q&A session following his remarks."
Holding to Account the Bush Legacy
Jeb Bush’s Brainless Trust (Maureen Dowd) from the New York Times
"If he wants to reclaim the Bush honor, Jeb should be holding accountable those who inflicted deep scars on America, not holding court with them. Where’s the shame? For some reason, Jeb doesn’t see it."
This is one of those areas where Democrats COULD do some real damage to Bush. Will they, though? We'll see.
"If he wants to reclaim the Bush honor, Jeb should be holding accountable those who inflicted deep scars on America, not holding court with them. Where’s the shame? For some reason, Jeb doesn’t see it."
This is one of those areas where Democrats COULD do some real damage to Bush. Will they, though? We'll see.
The Course of Conservative Talk Radio
Time Magazine Affirms - Rush Limbaugh Is In Trouble (Leslie Salzillo) from Daily Kos
"It seems the larger mainstream media outlets like Time Magazine are starting to realize that 'small-fry' social media outlets have become a force to be reckoned with."
"It seems the larger mainstream media outlets like Time Magazine are starting to realize that 'small-fry' social media outlets have become a force to be reckoned with."
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