News Nuggets 828

DAYLEE PICTURE: A view of Victoria Falls in Zambia.  From National Geographic.

Economy Poised for Growth Spurt, but Risks Abound from the Wall Street Journal
"The U.S. economy is on track to grow faster in the current quarter than any time since the second quarter of last year, though several risks—including a possible meltdown in Europe—are clouding the outlook."

Democracy Crippled: Economics Replaces the Separation of Powers (Nicolas Demorand) from Liberation [of France in English]
"This old paradigm has been swept away by the financial crisis. The last three years, with all their ups and downs and breathtaking tempo, have shown how obsolete this basic structure has become. … With nothing to counterbalance or regulate it, this new and more brutal structure now controls the others and imposes its own laws."

EU Debt Summit Fails to Satisfy Ratings Agencies from CNBC
"Investors were bracing for a possible mass downgrade of euro zone countries as soon as this week after EU leaders failed to come up with decisive measures to tackle the region's debt crisis."
In some respects this story showcases a growing problem for the EU: they have held so many "emergency summits" and announced so many "big fixes" (that turned out to be nothing) that they now face a global market for whom they have ZERO credibility!  I'm becoming increasingly skeptical that there is really anything these presidents and prime ministers could say or do that would be viewed as anything but an elaborate PR move designed to placate their voters back home.

Fortunately for them, they are not the only ones with credibility problems:
American Credit Rating Agencies Lose Influence (Editorial) from the Financial Times [of Germany in English]
 "The eurozone is in danger of being downgraded, but panic has yet to break out. The big credit ratings agencies are themselves to blame. Confidence in their professionalism is waning - and their messages are hardly necessary."
Too busy giving AAA ratings to bullsh%$ securities!  They're finally paying the price.

The Real Unemployment Rate is 11 Percent (Ezra Klein) from the Washington Post
""According to government statistics, if the same number of people were seeking work today as in 2007, the jobless rate would be 11 percent.""
It's actually much higher than this, probably more like 14+ percent.

The Ten Most Hipster Campuses from College Magazine.com
"#9 Carnegie Mellon -- Pittsburgh, PA - Artsy hipsters can also feel comfortable at Carnegie Mellon, which is one of the best fine arts schools in the country. Architecture, design, studio art and drama are top majors at Carnegie Mellon, but their unique College of Humanities & Social Sciences (H&SS) lets students explore several different fields. Instructors in H&SS focus on helping students solve “real world” problems rather than just memorizing lecture notes and encourage them to collaborate with students of different majors for projects and assignments. Think of it as a non-conformist liberal arts program… and isn’t anti-conformity what hipsters are all about?"

Could Obama Be Headed for a Landslide? (Michael Tomasky) from the Daily Beast
"Obama’s approval rating is soft, but new polls of South Carolina and Florida show him ahead of Gingrich and Romney. Michael Tomasky asks: could the GOP be headed for disaster?"
I have a dangerous confession to make.  My predictions of how the Presidential election will go next year, while they have varied in intensity, have always favored Obama as the ultimate victor.  What I haven't usually said is that, like Tomasky, I have long held out (and still hold out) the real possibility that Obama will win in a landslide.  Given the near universal predictions of a "close race" or, from the right, an epic loss by Obama, how could I say this?  To me, most pundits rely on relatively recent historical precedents as they look to 2012.  In my view, they are missing key older precedents that have far more relevance for 2012.  Specifically, the precedent I look to is FDR's reelection campaign of 1936.  The parallels are quite striking.  (1) At the time, like now, it was clear to everyone that the Depression was far from over; standard unemployment was still in the high teens and there was still significant despair across the country; (2) People forget that the GOP at the time, led by Alf Landon, were confident of defeating FDR in 1936.  Why? Because, like today, in Republican world then FDR was viewed as an un-American socialist/communist/fascist, and for them it was patently obvious that FDR would not be re-elected.  Polling at the time was very primitive (at best) and it was not until the final weeks of the campaign that Republicans began to suspect that it was going to be a GOP wipeout (note: there was only 17 GOPers left in the US Senate after the election of 1936).  Finally, and this is the key point, the GOP now (like  in 1936) are offering NOTHING that actually addresses the economic crisis.  In 2011, with each passing week, the GOP is more and more defined by their over-weening concern for the wealthiest.  See David Frum's item below.  As in 1936, where they did little but blast the policies of FDR, their 2012 campaign is shaping up to be one devoid of ANY proposal that would believably impact broad-based joblessness, economic revitalization or the other core economic concerns average people have.  As our current recession drags into next year, average Americans will be faced with choosing, on the one hand, the party that didn't do enough or chose the wrong things to do or, on the other hand, the party that has done and will do nothing.  I feel confident Obama will win that contest ... and, when you look at the GOP field that is shaping up, there's even the possibility that the contest won't even be close.

For Obama Campaign, Reasons for Optimism from the Washington Post
"For Obama advisers in need of a little lift after months of bad news, there have been some encouraging signs in recent weeks."

Where Was the GOP’s Middle Class Agenda? (David Frum) from the Frum Forum

"Saturday night’s debate provided a good example of how current GOP orthodoxy thwarts presidential candidates from talking seriously about the economic problems of the American middle class. ... How did Romney arrive at this unprepossessing result? In large part, because he was trapped by the structure of Republicans taboos."

How Rush Limbaugh Helped Hand the Election to Obama (Paul Begala) from the Daily Beast
Normally I don't post items by Begala.  I find him to be such a shameless partisan that I usually don't trust that he's being even remotely straight with readers.  But in this item he touches on some of the same evidence I noted above.
"The economy isn't giving Obama enough jobs, but the Republicans are giving him the next best thing: a villain to blame for the poor economy. By killing Obama's jobs agenda, Republicans may just save his presidency.""

Iowa Conservatives Forgive Newt Gingrich for His Past Mistakes (Howard Kurtz) from the Daily Beast
"His checkered record and three marriages are off-putting, to be sure. But Howard Kurtz reports that many Iowa Republicans are giving Gingrich a second chance—and the caucuses are his to lose."

I'll Bet You $10,000 Mitt Romney Isn't as Electable as He Thinks He is (Jed Lewison) from Daily Kos
"On paper, he should be a strong general election candidate: he doesn't come across as a conservative ideologue, he's relatively telegenic, he's capable of tailoring his words depending on the moment, and, most crucially, he seemed to be a well-disciplined candidate—a crucial attribute for a candidate seeking to unseat an incumbent president. Lately, however, Romney has repeatedly chipped away at that image of self-discipline. Consider:"

Romney’s Role: The Hillary Clinton of 2012? (Ben Smith) from the Politico
"There are differences to be sure, most centrally that Romney has yet to face a Barack Obama-like, central foe (though Newt Gingrich is now auditioning convincingly for that role) but instead has fought a series of rear-guard actions against a series of candidates-of-the-moment. But the similarities, particularly to veterans of Hillaryland circa 2008, are remarkable."

Why Republicans Don’t Nominate Swells (Jonathan Chait) from New York Magazine
"Romney is obviously conscious of his wealth and determined to avoid the stereotype of an out-of-touch rich guy interested only in protecting his own. And yet the party is committed to a policy agenda that involves enriching people in Romney’s tax bracket. This combination renders him an especially poor vehicle for the GOP agenda."

Balance Of Power: The Upcoming Battle For Senate Control from Talking Points Memo
"Speaking to both Democratic and Republican sources, it is clear that nobody is taking majority or minority status for granted — the chamber is up for grabs, and everyone is working hard for it."
A good, balanced look at where things are right now.