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Wednesday, March 21, 2018

News Nuggets 1569

Waves as they approach the coast of California.  From Smithsonian Magazine

TODAY'S BIG NUGGET: The "Who Called It" Nugget!!

Karen McDougal is the woman with the best chance of bringing down Trump from Think Progress
".... Daniels and McDougal have sued, asking the court to formally invalidate their agreements and let them speak freely.  But the nature of the agreements signed by Daniels and McDougal are quite different. From a legal perspective, the structure of McDougal’s contract appears to be worse for Trump and his associates."
See the Daniels story from News Nuggets 1568!  To quote myself from March 11: "ALL of the women who have signed NDAs with Trump will go back and find that he didn't sign their agreements either -- and thus they would be free to speak.  It is my sense that some of those cases go way beyond consensual affairs but deal with sexual harassment, rape, and worse."  And here we are just 10 days later!  I thought I was going out on a limb with my prediction.  I am going to follow on here with another prediction: it is now not a question as to if any more will come forward.  The question is how many?  I feel like I should start a pool!  Now, the second issue I raised in my last post was "It seems to me that law abiding people sign an NDA.  More nefarious folks simply blackmail.  I suspect Trump has had to deal with both types many times." What could this look like? See the following nugget!  -- Nuggetsman

Why Have Security Clearance? The Trump Example

The Stormy Daniels Saga Shows How Vulnerable Trump Is To Blackmail from the Huffington Post
"I mention the nitty-gritty, behind-the-scenes things we had to deal with not to be a martyr or because any of us felt the intensity of the questioning was unfair or inappropriate. I tell you this because it was a job to complete this form, and it was a job we all — senior advisers and junior assistants alike — took seriously. We knew that the security of the United States could be compromised if we screwed up the SF86.  ... We are talking about the president. With every passing news cycle, the current administration is learning this lesson, about the importance of telling the truth, an even harder way. The total failure to follow protocol, to tell the truth about staffers’ backgrounds, is biting them in the ass."

A GREAT DETAILED PRIMER on Firing or Not Firing

Trump would love to fire Mueller. But here’s why he’s been afraid to so far. from Vox
"It is certainly possible that Trump could change his mind and decide that, despite all this, Mueller’s probe is so dangerous that it’s worth casting caution to the wind and firing him. But he’s been afraid to take that step so far — and for some very good reasons."

Assessing Trump's Young Presidency: Check out the Superlatives!

Trump’s presidency is unravelling. But he won’t fall without a push (Gary Younge) from the Guardian (of the UK)
"Witnessing Trump’s presidency unravel so spectacularly provokes a perverse joy. The venality is so baroque, the vulgarity so ostentatious, the inconsistencies so stark, the incompetence so epic and the lies so brazen, it leaves you speechless. His vanity is without guile and the scandals that embroil him without end. Almost everything he says and does has been publicly contradicted, by himself, usually on Twitter. "

Trump "growing into his Presidency"

White House shakeup shows Trump tired of hearing 'no' for an answer from Reuters
" Almost 14 months into Donald Trump’s turbulent White House tenure, loyalists are in, dissenters are out and the president himself is acting on his own instincts more swiftly than ever to make decisions on policies from trade to North Korea."
Oh happy day!

On Trump's New Cabinet: There's Madness to His Method

Trump is systematically removing the guardrails in his cabinet from the New Republic
"These changes suggest a president who is convinced that he has grown into the job and, more troublingly, has come to resent the numerous guardrails that were erected around him to protect the country (and the world) from his erratic instincts. Trump is remaking his cabinet—filling it with hawks and cable news pundits—into his own image."

The Politics of Sophistry and Cynicism

Trump's maximal tribalism (Damon Linker) from The Week
"Without fully grasping the consequences of his words and deeds, President Trump has done more than any previous president to advance a politics of sophistry and cynicism. It's a politics defined by the unrelenting effort to prove that every apparent act of virtue is in fact an example of something lower — of the very tribalism that motivates Trump's every public utterance and act."

2018 House Election Prediction Nugget!

Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats from Roll Call
"Seven and a half months before the midterm elections, the combination of attitudinal and behavioral evidence leads to a single conclusion: The Democrats are very likely to win control of the House in November. Just as important, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists also agree that an electoral wave has already formed. The attitudinal evidence begins with national polling."
I think this analysis is VERY CONSERVATIVE!  If Dems do as well in November as they have done on average in the special elections from last year and this year, the GOP actually has close to 110 House seats in danger.  Now -- I think there is no way the Dems will get anything close to 110.  I am predicting more like a 65-70 seat pickup.  No one else is predicting this.  You heard it here first.  One caveat: I fully expect Russian hackers will be targeting election outcomes by finding ways to actually alter vote totals.  If this happens on anything like a meaningful scale, all bets are off.

The Bigger Picture on Russian Poisoning in the UK

Poisoning of Russian ex-spy puts spotlight on Moscow’s secret military labs from the Washington Post
"During his last run for the presidency, in 2012, Russian leader Vladimir Putin startled U.S. military experts with a mysterious pledge to develop novel kinds of weapons to counter the West’s technological edge. Armies of the future, he said, would need weapons “based on new physical principles” including “genetic” and “psychophysical” science."
There is every indication that Putin has been investing A LOT in unconventional forms of weaponry.  We are now somewhat privy to the kind of cyber warfare he will wage.  Russia has long been the leader in chem-bio WMDs.  This seems like a clear extension of that.  If you want to see the bigger historical picture, see David Hoffman's Pulitzer prize winning book, The Dead Hand.

On the McCabe Firing

I stand with Andrew McCabe (Ronald Klain) from the Washington Post
"A president who doesn’t respect the rule of law will always have the upper hand over imperfect but fundamentally decent civil servants."

Immigration Nugget

Is it still worth trying to come to America as an asylum seeker? I don't think so (Luis Mancheno) from the Guardian (of the UK)
"I know you will come because I am a refugee living in the United States and I know what it means to escape death. I am so ashamed that we will do this to you and I am angry because my new country has betrayed me and every other person who believed in it. This place is not what it used to be. Just know that."

Gun Control Reform Nugget!

Maher panel proposes a new way of taking down the NRA — and the gun organization should be afraid from Raw Story
"“Why does the NRA get a tax exemption and how to do we take it away?” host Bill Maher proposed as his audience applauded. “They would like to say that they don’t run a political action committee, but they do have that wing, saying they are a grassroots non-profit organization,” Sirius radio host Nayyera Haq explained as comedian Pete Dominick interjected, “Elect Democrats.”"

Sunday, March 11, 2018

News Nuggets 1568

DAYLEE PICTURE: Stormy Daniels edifying exhibition. From the New York Times.

TODAY'S BIG NUGGET: The Trump Presidency: "Worse Than I Had Imagined..."

It’s Worse Than We Thought (Josh Marshall) from Talking Points Memo
"While I’ve been following the Trump era for going on three years and long been a pessimist about the depth of his corruption – both venal and otherwise – the last two weeks has made me think the situation is significantly worse than I’d imagined.  Let me refer very briefly to two points."

Trump, Now Liberated to Act on His Impulses... ?!

“Trump is Going for a Clean Reset": Fuming in the West Wing (Gabriel Sherman) from Vanity Fair
"Donald Trump was telling friends he was tired of being reined in. “I’m doing great, but I’m getting all these bad headlines,” Trump told a friend recently. A Republican in frequent contact with the White House told me Trump is “frustrated by all these people telling him what to do.”  With the departures of Hope Hicks and Gary Cohn, the Trump presidency is entering a new phase—one in which Trump is feeling liberated to act on his impulses."
AH!  So what we have seen so far has been the buttoned down, under-control Trump!!

America: A Hapless Cartoon Character on the World TV Screen

Trump is Wile E. Coyote (David Ignatius) from the Washington Post
" When it comes to global diplomacy, America under President Trump has become something of a hapless cartoon villain, detonating bombs on itself and running into walls — while our nimbler adversaries dart away in a blur of dust. ... His strategy, if you can call it that, has been to disrupt America’s traditional economic and security relationships and commitments. He must imagine that this gives him new leverage, but mostly the result has been a series of self-inflicted wounds."

Time for Kushner's Close Up -- and It Isn't Pretty!

The corruption of Kushner (Ryan Cooper) from The Week
"Obviously, the Kushner situation is galactically worse than Trump simply hiring a relatively dim relative. Indeed, Kushner (who recently lost his Top Secret security clearance) is also up to his armpits in extremely shady business deals that reek of corruption. In a healthy democracy, law enforcement would already be closing in. ... Let's just run through just a few publicly known facts and see if we can't connect the dots."

For Christians, After Trump, What Could They Ever Be "Public Witnesses" To?

The Last Temptation (Michael Gerson) from the Atlantic
"Loyalty to Trump has involved progressively more difficult, self-abasing demands. And there appears to be no limit to what some evangelical leaders will endure. ...  The moral convictions of many evangelical leaders have become a function of their partisan identification. This is not mere gullibility; it is utter corruption. Blinded by political tribalism and hatred for their political opponents, these leaders can’t see how they are undermining the causes to which they once dedicated their lives. Little remains of a distinctly Christian public witness."

Prince and Obstruction of Justice?

Erik Prince Might Want To Shift Investments To Private Prison Industry from Talking Points Memo
"Prince appears caught conducting clandestine business, which may not be criminal in itself (you can meet people in the Seychelles) but may or may not be part of a broader criminal conspiracy. But here he may be caught not only in a lie but a highly material lie and perhaps one that is so clear-cut and designed to impede a lawful investigation that he can be prosecuted for it."
Prince has been one of the more prominent war profiteering shit heels for many years.  This couldn't have happened to a nicer guy!

More Dangers in the Daniels Discolsures

One Night with Stormy Daniels, the Hero America Needs from Rolling Stone Magazine
""Penguins have terrible breath," she says. "How do you know penguins have terrible breath?" I ask. "They smell like they've been eating bad vagina. I got to pet one at a zoo – if you ever go to the zoo, the penguin habitat is the stinkiest one. It smells like a really bad porn set." ... this meeting began with one such message, promoting a "Make America Horny Again" tour date at a club on Long Island. The release was riddled with typos..."
Wow!  Jennifer Flowers and Monica Lewinski look like really classy dames (like for real) compared to this one.  The Donald sure can choose them!  
On a more serious note, I think there is A LOT of danger to Trump in this Daniels business.  I think it is inevitable that all the lurid details and photos (and accessories?) will come out.  But the danger comes from (at least two fronts)--  fronts that go beyond what most reporters are talking about right now: first, that ALL of the women who have signed NDAs with Trump will go back and find that he didn't sign their agreements either -- and thus they would be free to speak.  It is my sense that some of those cases go way beyond consensual affairs but deal with sexual harassment, rape, and worse.  Second, if this stand alone sex case metastasizes into dozens involving much darker behaviors, at what point will this scandal cross the Russia probe -- where we ultimately confirm the worst allegations from the Steele Dossier with actual videos involving a range of characters and situations?  It seems to me that law abiding people sign an NDA.  More nefarious folks simply blackmail.  I suspect Trump has had to deal with both types many times.
If you want to get a sense of the salacious aspects of his affair with Daniels, see THIS.

When You Have No Shame, Scandals Don't Matter

The President and the Porn Star: A Story’s Slow Rise Above the Din (Matthew Flagenheimer) from the New York Times
"Here is a leader who crowds out scandal with more scandal, who tends to insist that the buck stops elsewhere, who boasted of sexual assault on tape and got to the White House anyway. It is not quite that nothing sticks to Mr. Trump; it is that so much sticks that nothing stays visible for very long. ... The moment touches several crosscurrents of the Trump age: an administration defined largely by its chaos; the #MeToo movement; and a news media still grappling, nearly three years after Mr. Trump declared his candidacy, with how to cover his excess of excesses.  “Scandals run on shame. Trump is completely exempt from any shame,” Mr. Murphy said. “So instead of talking about the crime, we just score-keep.”"

No Staff -- No Problem

Devastating graphic featured by MSNBC’s Katy Tur destroys the White House spin on its staffing crisis from Raw Story
“President Trump does not treat his staff well, he publicly embarrasses them and undermines them,” noted former White House press secretary Josh Earnest. “So if you know you’re going to get criticized or undermined by your boss before you even get there, and once you get there you’re not likely to have influence on the process, then why would you even go?”

A Fully Automated McDonalds on the Horizon

Meet Flippy, the world's first burger-flipping robot from The Week
"Artificial intelligence is poised to enter yet another aspect of your life: fast food. After years of preparation, a burger-flipping robot named Flippy made its debut on Monday at the Pasadena, California, location of the restaurant chain CaliBurger."

Sunday, March 4, 2018

News Nuggets 1567

Guangxi Province in China.  From Smithsonian Magazine

TODAY'S BIG NUGGET: Trump Gradually Losing His Marbles

The great unraveling: Trump's allies are really worried about him (Gloria Borger) from CNN
"Not since Richard Nixon started talking to the portraits on the walls of the West Wing has a president seemed so alone against the world. One source -- who is a presidential ally -- is worried, really worried. The source says this past week is "different," that advisers are scared the President is spiraling, lashing out, just out of control."

The Emerging Landscape of Partisan Demographics

New Survey Shows Young People Are Staying Liberal and Conservatives Are Dying Off (Jonathan Chait) from New York Magazine
"... the fact remains that America is politically sorted by generations in a way it never has before. The oldest voters are the most conservative, white, and Republican, and the youngest voters the most liberal, racially diverse, and Democratic. There is absolutely no sign the dynamic is abating during the Trump years. If anything, it is accelerating."

Chain Reactions for the Common Good

The Force of Decency Awakens (Paul Krugman) from the New York Times
"Political scientists have a term and a theory for what we’re seeing on #MeToo, guns and perhaps more: “regime change cascades.” Here’s how it works: When people see the status quo as immovable, they tend to be passive even if they are themselves dissatisfied. Indeed, they may be unwilling to reveal their discontent, or to fully admit it to themselves. But once they see others visibly taking a stand, they both gain more confidence in their dissent and become more willing to act on it — and by their actions they may induce the same response in others, causing a kind of chain reaction."

Mueller ... Going Deep

Robert Mueller Has Trump and Family in His Crosshairs (Jonathan Chait) from New York Magazine
"One safe conclusion is that the investigation is probably not near done. Another is that Trump and his family are not safe. ... The big picture is that, after Trump burned enough creditors that American banks stopped dealing with him, he became deeply reliant on Russian capital. The Russian economy is deeply connected to Vladimir Putin, and uses its leverage to advance political goals."

Trump's People Following the Watergate Play Book

Robert Mueller Doesn’t Need a Smoking Gun (Elizabeth Drew) from the New Republic
"The latest indictments suggest a pattern of behavior on the part of Trump and his associates—the kind of pattern that brought down Richard Nixon."

Russia Scandal: Biggest Political Scandal ... Ever

Collusion or not, Russia probe is worst political scandal in decades (Chuck Todd) from NBC News
"Whether or not Mueller ever finds a smoking gun that Trump and his campaign colluded with Russia, this is already the biggest political scandal in decades. And we are just more than a year into Trump’s presidency and nine months into Mueller’s probe. “Clearly the worst presidential scandal since at least Iran-Contra, but probably since Watergate,” said political scientist Jonathan Bernstein."
When it's all over, Watergate will look like the equivalent of Travelgate from the Clinton years!  Biggest political scandal in US history! That's what we are looking at with Trump."

Trump's Road Has No Rails

Trump Thought the Rules Didn’t Apply—and Now He’s Paying the Price (David Graham) from the Atlantic
"The Trump administration decided early on that many guidelines were either antiquated or punitive, and is belatedly discovering that they were there for its own protection."

Trump's Partisan Corruption Fairness Doctrine

Trump urges national unity, investigation of 'the other side' amid Russia probe from Politico
"Saying there were "no phone calls, no meetings, no collusion," President Donald Trump on Saturday pushed for an investigation of "the other side" amid the FBI probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election ..."
Left unattended, Trump always reveals what he really thinks.  He thinks Sessions and the Justice Department needs to be investigating the Dems out of some warped version of partisan "fairness".  In his world view, since he is under so much investigation, the DOJ should be investigating the Dems FOR SOMETHING!  On his own, he couldn't come up with any real reason to -- but it should happen. Obama, Hilary, the party, whatever.  Trump's view: invent something! -- Nuggetsman

Were Some Trump Folks Too Stupid to be Worth Recruiting by Russians?

Russian Spies Thought Trump Adviser Carter Page Was an ‘Idiot’—But Still Tried to Recruit Him from the Daily Beast
"...  the FBI had been watching Page as a potential Russian spy since 2013, long before Page was mentioned in the dossier of dirt on the Trump-Russia connection compiled by former British intelligence operative Christopher Steele over the summer and fall of 2016."

Trump Routinely Ignores Advice of his Legal Team

Trump ignored 'bright line' on discussing Russia with Hicks from Politico
"President Donald Trump’s lawyers have urged him not to discuss details of the unfolding Russia investigation with anyone outside his legal team, warning of a conversational “bright line” that could put aides and associates in legal jeopardy, according to current and former Trump aides.  But Trump often ignores that legal advice in the presence of senior aides — including his departing confidante and White House communications director, Hope Hicks."

Economic Trouble Nugget!

The Mortgage Market Is Moving Into the Shadows from Bloomberg
"The last financial crisis occurred in part because unregulated lending in the mortgage market got out of hand. Believe it or not, it’s starting to happen again, and could ultimately precipitate another disaster unless regulators get their act together."
Regular NN reader Keith Richmond and I have been tracking a number of important stories on the economy.  Neither of us are buying all the happy talk about the economy.  In their hearts, most economists know that we are DUE for a downturn right about now -- and there are MANY indicators of conditions that resemble what was occurring right before the great recession.  Not enough was done after the last recession to prevent future bubbles and abuses. -- Nuggetsman

Right Wing Pundit Nugget!

If this is what conservatism has become, count me out (Max Boot) from the Washington Post
"That, in a nutshell, is the credo of today’s high-profile conservatives: Say anything to “trigger” the “libtards” and “snowflakes.” The dumber and more offensive, the better. Whatever it takes to get on (and stay on) Fox News and land the next book contract!  Naturally, just as drug addicts need bigger doses over time, these outrage artists must be ever more transgressive to get the attention they crave."

Another Right Wing Pundit Nugget!

I’m Glad I Got Booed at CPAC (Mona Charon) from the New York Times
"... this time, and particularly in front of this crowd, it felt far more urgent to point out the hypocrisy of our side. How can conservative women hope to have any credibility on the subject of sexual harassment or relations between the sexes when they excuse the behavior of President Trump? ... I watched my fellow panelists’ eyes widen. And then the booing began.  I’d been dreading it for days, but when it came, I almost welcomed it. There is nothing more freeing than telling the truth."
I have NEVER liked Mona Charon.  She has always seemed to me to be way too ideologically straight-jacketed -- so I am glad to see her breaking with her crowd.  Having said that, there is so much about her column that speaks to where the conservative movement went wrong.  Example: she says at the end of the column, "Just before I reached the exit, a woman approached me and called my name. “That was so brave!” she told me. She was one of my fellow panelists."  This fellow panelist spoke at CPAC, took the big payday, mouthed some alt-right bromides and will live large on all the follow-on business that comes from it,  This, despite the fact she was unwilling to speak the truth.  Charon herself for years was one of those folks who were featured speakers on high-priced, donor ass-kissing cruises.  For so many of these people (and I include the Limbaughs and Inghrams in this conversation), they are too addicted to the big paydays that come with being a right-wing talking head.  What can you say about a crowd that continues to this day to milk 1990s era Bill and Hilary stories to keep their readers/listeners tuned in and hopping mad?!  -- Nuggetsman

2018 Campaign Nugget!!

Do Democrats Really Need a Message? from the New Republic
"...one positive effect of the lack of a “message” is that it allows a candidate to define his or her own race and to come off as authentic rather than as a party tool. Running as an individual can also protect a candidate from being “Nancy Pelosied.” "

Movie Nugget!

"In Marvel's depiction of Wakanda, many African fans see something rarer than vibranium: a big-screen image of Africa that defies Hollywood stereotypes."

Hollywood Academy Awards Nugget!

At 101, a Survivor of Hollywood’s Golden Age Throws Down the Gauntlet from the New York Times
"In the era of “I, Tonya,” the Oscar-winning actress Olivia de Havilland’s lawsuit against FX and Ryan Murphy Productions has a certain potent symbolism."