Pages

Sunday, February 8, 2015

Nicaragua’s Controversial Canal

If You Dig It, Will They Come? from World Politics Review
"...  like Panama before it, Nicaragua could find itself transformed from a relatively quiet Central American backwater into a geopolitical linchpin in the Western Hemisphere. But while Panama’s century-old gamble paid off, Nicaragua is an entirely different case, despite the apparent
similarities. There is a big difference in the geopolitical and economic impact of opening the region’s first trans-isthmus canal—and opening its second. ... Which begs another question: Does Nicaragua, or the world, really even need this canal? Many think no."
This story corresponds with a larger theme that has emerged in the recent history of China: re-living the 20th century -- except in this version China was the GREAT POWER, not America.  And so we now get to see in the 21st century, China doing what the US did in the 20th -- except a bigger, better Chinese version.  So, America went to the moon in 1969.  Now China is going to the moon -- except they're going to go three times!  In the 20th century, the US transformed many American cities by embracing the skyscraper.  In China, they build WHOLE cities using high tech and cutting edge skyscraper designs (never mind that many of these cities in the middle of nowhere have no one living in them).  So now we get the Nicaraguan Canal -- it is BIGGER and THREE TIMES as long as America's Panama Canal (and it is over terrain that is WAY MORE perilous than Panama's).  Indeed, Panama is ALREADY working on a major project to widen their canal.  But -- as with these other examples -- you have to ask yourself, at base what is motivating these initiatives? Any clear assessment of long-term benefits and what would be in China's self interest?  I don't think so.  My answers: (1) too much spare cash meets virtually no imagination.  The ONLY reference point they have for how a great power might behave is the US in the 20th century. It's ALL about Chinese agrandizement with no connection to anything actually needed;  and (2) among Chinese leaders and policy makers, this is also about somehow making up for a "century of humiliation" by western powers.  Again, their reference point is the past, not the future or any clear-eyed assessment of what China or the world needs.  Don't be at all surprised if, after spending north of 50 billion on this Nicaraguan Canal that it ends up being under-used. -- Nuggetsman.

No comments: