WORLD WAR I NUGGET!!

Just How Likely Is Another World War? (Graham Allison) from the Atlantic 
"Assessing the similarities and differences between 1914 and 2014."

This is a weakly conceived article that communicates little and concludes less. My argument is technical. When the first German V2 rocket hit Cheswick, England in 1944, historical comparisons of major wars became largely irrelevant. Up to that time, every weapon had some defense, even if marginally effective. There is no workable defense against missile strikes (the Iron Dome scores only 20% against rockets far less sophisticated than the V2). China has nuclear tipped missiles. China can and will continue to expropriate resources within the nine dash line simple because they can. Look for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to arm their missiles with nukes over the coming years; and who can blame them. But the article also falls apart geographically. There is certainly as much possibility of a major war in oil regions such as Saudi Arabia, West Africa or Russia, none of which the author mentions. Any war affecting such massive oil reserves will be global by default. I appreciate that people are desperate to avert future wars by not repeating the mistakes of the past, but the world has changed more in the past century than it has in the past five millennia.

Posted by - hopeandespair