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UP-FRONT 2016 ELECTION NUGGET!!
16 Reasons Why Hillary Clinton Will Win 2016 (Myra Adams) from the Daily Beast
"Sorry, folks, this race is over. Conservative Myra Adams lists the many reasons Hillary will win the White House in 2016—from gross media bias to groupthink and barrels of money."
About half of the reasons Adams lists are partisan BS or just straight up whining. But let's turn this question around: 16 reasons why WHOEVER the Democrats nominate will defeat WHOEVER the Republican nominee is:
1. A clear majority of campaign reporters and pundits (even the right wing ones) think most of the GOP potentials for 2016 are nutty, deeply uninformed partisan clowns. This is NOT media bias. It is informed people looking at deeply uninformed people and acknowledging in their hearts what is so.
2. Adams says Hispanics, African Americans, and Asian Americans will vote overwhelmingly for the Democrat. True - but let me say this a different way: the Republican nominee will not give these voters ANY reason to vote for him or her. Indeed, to win the GOP primary, the nominee will need to embrace highly offensive positions and use very dismissive rhetoric that will make that candidate toxic to these minority voters.
3. The elderly seniors who are now central to the GOP base are a shrinking demographic -- there will simply be fewer of them with each election cycle.
4. Correspondingly, the Democrat will carry the youth vote disproportionately -- especially if Obama really puts his full support behind the nominee. Remember also that the youth demographic gets a new shot in the arm each cycle as young people turn 18. The GOP has NO strategy for drawing young voters to them. Indeed, if you talk to most young people, they view the GOP as hopelessly out of sync with their generation.
5. Linked to #2 -- states such as Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, New Hampshire, Virginia and North Carolina (as they become more urban and more ethnically diverse) will continue their movement towards the Democratic Party. The only states that are really seeing a move in the opposite direction are West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas and perhaps Missouri. This not an equal trade off. Adams gives a misleading spin to this one by saying, oh, "the electoral college favors the Dems."
6. Most indications are that the economy will not be a major issue in 2016. On economic issues and taxation, the Democrats currently have a small (but still statistically significant) edge over the GOP. Where is the room for growth for Republicans? People who buy the economic argument of the deficit already vote for the GOP. Aside from cutting spending, Republicans have NO economic argument. Cut taxes and regulation? Again, those who buy this approach to economic growth already vote Republican.
7. Most indications are that the GOP nominee will have NO advantage in areas such as national defense/national security/foreign policy. Indeed, if the Palinization of the party continues, look for the nominee to be very weak in this area. Currently, NONE of the potentials that are on the radar screen right now have any bona fides in this area at all (even Jeb Bush is not very strong here).
8. Every indication is that the GOP will spend the next three years simply trying to hold onto its base with little or no meaningful outreach to the political center.
9. Women will disproportionately vote for the Democratic candidate. With the traditional set of "women's issues" (abortion, gun control, wages, fairness, family economics, health and safety, jobs), the GOP seems committed to a program of provoking women who care about these issues rather than giving them ANYTHING that might enlist or excite them.
10. The steady drip, drip, drip of voter suppression tactics the GOP has embraced since the Supreme Court shift on the Voting Rights Act will only DRIVE UP African American turn out in 2014 and 2016. If Hispanics come to conclude that these tactics are aimed at them as well (which they are) look for the Hispanic vote to go from 75% to 80+% for the Democrat.
11. You have to ask yourself, looking at any Republican who runs in 2016, on WHAT record of accomplishment will they campaign on? Anyone from the House and Senate will have virtually nothing they could point to, and most of the Republican governors have records that are (at best) controversial and/or those governors are unpopular. (Exception: Chris Christie -- but this man will NOT be the GOP nominee. He's too liberal on too many social issues).
12. The credibility issue. The GOP "brand" is so tarnished by over-hyped partisan, sky-is-falling BS that any Republican nominee will find it next to impossible to bridge the gap between the hard core conservative base (and the off-the-deep-end positions they hold) and the rest of the electorate. Romney tried to do this and simply couldn't pull it off.
13. Winners invariably have upbeat positive messages to bring to the electorate. Republican potentials for 2016 (and the party generally and their base especially) have nothing positive to say or communicate to voters. It is all doom, gloom and catastrophes -- alongside messages that are routinely racist, sexist, or otherwise deeply offensive to large blocks of voters. What could the candidates' positive message possibly be?! Let's wave the flag and sing one more round of "God Bless America"?!
14. Money. GOP contenders are already poised to spend BIG TIME in the primaries. And, if Obama's technical and fundraising prowess retains anything like the edge it had in 2012, whoever Republicans nominate will be hard pressed to keep up. What about corporate America's traditional support for Republicans? Forecast: big business's support for the Republican nominee in 2016 will be less than it was in 2012. There is a growing consensus in corporate America that GOP congressional tactics have prolonged the recession and continue to promote economic uncertainty. If there is a gov't shut down late this year over the debt ceiling, look for a clear move by corporate America away from the GOP both in 2014 and 2016.
15. No matter who the Democratic candidates are in their primaries, the GOP primaries will almost certainly be more bitter and divisive. Why? Because (1) the GOP is already way more divided as a party than the Democrats. And (2) under Obama, the politics of personal destruction have become the FIRST response by conservative political operatives. Carefully thought out positions, policies, and measured rhetoric have largely gone out the window. Look for those same political operatives to resort to the same divisive tool set in the GOP primaries. Even as this has become commonplace in Republican primaries and caucuses, it is still unusual that you see it in Democratic presidential primaries.
16. Governance. The Republican Party in Congress will continue to experience more meltdowns around basic issues of governance. There will be more of these episodes -- and they will be more and more OBVIOUS to average voters. By 2016, the GOP's reputation for being incapable of governing will be set in cement -- and that will taint ANY candidate who runs at the top of their ticket.
I think my list is way more compelling than Adams's. But then put Hillary's name in instead of "any democrat" and I can come up with 16 more reasons why she would win against any Republican candidate. Keep in mind though my cautionary note above on Clinton fatigue.
Chaos Looms (Paul Krugman) from the New York Times
"In the short run the point is that Republican leaders are about to reap the whirlwind, because they haven’t had the courage to tell the base that Obamacare is here to stay, that the sequester is in fact intolerable, and that in general they have at least for now lost the war over the shape of American society. ... neither you nor I should forget that the madness of the GOP is the central issue of our time."
I COMPLETELY agree with Krugman's last point here -- and I think Obama sees it this way too.
Higher Wages Don’t Hurt Consumers! (David Sirota) from Salon
"Research reveals it costs mere pennies at the register to put more dollars in millions of Americans' paychecks."
A Nuclear Showdown Looming Over Judicial Nominees? (Joan McCarter) from Daily Kos
"... it's also a move to shine a bright light on Republican refusal to allow the courts to function, just like they're shutting down the other two branches. This also puts a lot of pressure on Democratic senators. They do have the power in their hands to help clear the backlog, if they'll use it."
The Power of a Party from the Economist [of London]
"The teenagers of San Antonio give a foretaste of America’s Hispanic future."
New Labor Movement Emerges in Scott Walker's Wisconsin from Salon
"... two years later, resistance to the state’s crackdown on labor has spread beyond Madison. And once again, Wisconsin is ground zero for the future of the labor movement — the catalyst for a new, disassembled, fitting-and-starting labor movement."
Saboteurs in the Potato Salad (Timothy Egan) from the New York Times
"Republican lawmakers have a bold plan for summer recess: staging fake meetings with prescreened, softball questions."
A perfectly logical tactic given, as I noted on Friday, the Potemkin Party the GOP has become. Softball media, safe venues, candidates with Soviet-style "minders" to keep real reporters and real Americans at a safe distance, and have events that look like election events -- but that are in fact completely staged. Sarah Palin showed how it can be done -- and now we see how it's being brought to the next level.
The Suicide Caucus (Peter Wehner) from Commentary Magazine
"It just doesn’t make sense to insist on a goal (defunding the Affordable Care Act) that you know in advance is unattainable. And you don’t issue a threat (we will keep the federal government shut down unless and until ObamaCare is defunded) that in the end you can’t deliver on–and which your opponents know you can’t deliver on."
Hollywood Bets on Hillary Clinton Payoff from Politico
"Hillary Clinton, get ready for your close-up. The former secretary of state and potential 2016 presidential candidate is the subject of a series of Hollywood projects set for release in the near future."
The Danger of Clinton Fatigue ((John Dickerson) from Slate
"Hillary Clinton invites drama, even when she does nothing at all. Will voters tire of it before 2016 rolls around? Will she?"
Drama is the wrong word. The Clintons invited prolonged low-level scandal thru their ethical blind spots combined with poor personal judgement. THESE are the real dangers for Hillary and any campaign and presidency she may hope for in the future. And anyone who says she has demonstrated in the last scandal-free thirteen years that she is "different," reformed, or shown better judgment doesn't understand how running for the big chair changes everything. In the early 1990s, from Jennifer Flowers forward, the smelly dog poo of scandal never left the Clintons' heels. If Hillary or Bill become caught in some scandal during the primaries or later (no matter how innocuous), Clinton fatigue will show up real quick!
GOP Leaders Reap the Whirlwind (Greg Sargent) from the Washington Post
"Republicans can’t accept higher spending levels because … the goal of keeping spending as low as possible has become a moral crusade, a higher calling, that can never be questioned, even if they are not willing or able to say how they would accomplish this."
Fractious GOP Looking for Direction to the White House (Dan Balz) from the Washington Post
"Republicans are squabbling about the future, with no consensus among their rank and file."
Is the GOP Self-Destructing? The Republicans Can't Seem to Agree on Anything (Doyle McManus) from the Los Angeles Times
"How divided are Republicans in Congress? So divided, one conservative joked, that it shouldn't be called a civil war: "It's not organized enough for that." Every political party has its factions, of course. And parties that have recently lost presidential elections — as the GOP just did — are often the most divided. But the current brawl in the GOP seems more destructive and personal than most."
Republicans Go On Attack —Against Others In GOP from Talking Points Memo
"The barbs are personal, the differences are multiplying among Republicans, a party divided over spending, foreign policy, a willingness to risk a government shutdown in order to defund the health care law and more."
Ted Cruz Does Not Care About You, Republican “Grown-ups” (Alex Pareene) from Salon
"The plan was Sen. Mike Lee’s (R-Utah) idea, but its current most vocal proponent is Ted Cruz, R-Texas, a very smart man who purposefully talks like a very crazy man, because he understands how to become a celebrity in the modern conservative movement. Cruz doesn’t care if the plan makes sense, either as policy or even as political tactics. ... Ted Cruz is the right man for the decadent decline stage of the conservative movement, which has always encouraged the advancement of fact-challenged populist extremists, but always with the understanding that they’d take a back seat to the sensible business interests when it came time to exercise power."
Rush Limbaugh’s Long, Slow March to Irrelevance (John Avlon) from the Daily Beast
"Don’t listen to the headlines—Rush Limbaugh’s talk-radio supremacy ain’t over just yet. But it’s long been clear that his glory days are behind him. John Avlon on the final days of toxic right-wing talk."
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