News Nuggets 1397

DAYLEE PICTURE: Mudskippers in southern Thailand.  From the Daily Mail of the UK.

Once more the Nuggetsman will be traveling (ah, and with so much going on too!) over the next two days.  Thus, he will not be at his "post" until probably Friday at the earliest!  Today's very rich trove will have to suffice in the meantime.

UP-FRONT UKRAINE NUGGET!!
Welcome to Cold War II: This is What it Will Look Like (Dmitri Trenin) from the Foreign Policy Magazine
An extended excerpt is in order here.
"It's not a pretty picture. Thankfully, some of the worst things of the first Cold War will never likely be resurrected. Officially sanctioned Russian patriotism, even with an anti-American bent, will not be
tantamount to a new ideology. ... U.S.-Russia geopolitical competition will not be confined to Ukraine, but a string of proxy wars is also not in the offing. ... This will be the dawn of a new period, reminiscent in some ways of the Cold War from the 1940s to 1980s. Like with the two world wars, the failure to resolve the issues arising out of the imperfect peace settlement and the failure to fully integrate one of the former antagonists into the new system are leading to a new conflict -- even if a large-scale war will again be safely avoided."
Interestingly, I don't quite buy the Cold War connection here.  To the extent historical analogies are useful (and there are clear limits to their utility here) I see the buildup to World War II as the more
appropriate case -- with particular emphasis on the rise/return of fascism to Europe, a topic we've been tracking here for quite some time.  Sans communism's ideological edge, Putin's Russia (with its strident
nationalism, home-to-the-fatherland rationalizations, and authoritarian media messaging) mirror's nascent fascist movements of the early 1930s.  Having said this, I DON'T think Russia will go the way of Nazism's brand of fascism.  Russia simply does not have the economic or military clout that Hitler had -- and Russia's economy is more likely to go further into the dumper from this Crimean stunt.  Moreover, if Russia invades the rest of Ukraine, I strongly suspect there will be a years-long bloody civil war, more like Georgia and Chechenya or the former Yugoslavia (with Russia playing the role of Serbia) rather than Germany's anschluss of Austria or the largely bloodless seizure of Czechoslovakia. After this Maiden Square revolution in Kiev, I'm skeptical that, where Ukrainians dominate, that they will go quietly into the night of a second era of Russian authoritarian control.  Interestingly, during most of Ukraine's history, they have been controlled by Moscow and the sense of Ukrainian identity, solidarity and nationalism have been suppressed.  I could easily see the case where Russian intervention actually leads to an efflorescence of precisely these elements that Putin is so dramatically trying to stamp out.

Crimea, the Tinderbox (Charles King) from the New York Times
"NATO cannot possibly extend security guarantees to a government that does not control its own territory. Yet even in the midst of a standoff, Russia and the West have a clear common interest: forestalling a civil war in the heart of Europe."

Putin's War, Not Obama's (Marc Ambinder) from The Week
"One undeniable truth: Iraq weakened the U.S. more than anything done since. Maybe Obama overlearned its lessons; maybe we all have. But nothing empowered Vladimir Putin more than America's squandering of moral standing in the early part of this century."

Putin's Press Conference Proved Merkel Right: He's Lost His Mind (Julia Ioffe) from the New Republic
"Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. “In another world,” she said. If you weren't sure of the veracity of that little reportorial nugget, all doubt should've vanished after Putin's press conference today. "
It was reported the other day when the Crimean crisis was first unfolding that Obama was on the phone with Putin for 90 minutes, a big chunk of time for a US president.  And yet, despite this length of time, virtually nothing came out of that call.  Well, I'm beginning to wonder if Putin had roughly the same conversation with Obama that he had with Merkel.  

Putin's Crimean Crime (Roger Cohen) from the New York Times
"To imagine Germany today (unthinkable notion) moving into western Poland with a claim of protecting ethnic Germans there conveys some idea of the historical offense Putin has given to many Ukrainians — and of the fear he strikes into other nations with Russian minorities and dire memories of Moscow, like Lithuania. ... This is the Age of Reluctance, a time when American power is dominant but no longer determinant. Americans have turned inward."
I usually find myself in agreement with Cohen -- and indeed I am with him in this column for about three quarters of the way -- but then he gets to what Obama should do to Putin -- and Cohen pretty much loses me there. In my view Obama needs to play the role of Eisenhower right now -- and play it cool, forge alliances, and not let the hyper-hawks railroad him into precipitous military action in Ukraine.   

One of Obama's greatest skills is as a defensive counterpuncher -- don't be surprised if Putin hasn't profoundly miscalculated in what he's done in Ukraine.  Case in point from the usually clear-eyed Mr. Ignatius:
Putin’s Error in Ukraine is the Kind that Leads to Catastrophe (David Ignatius) from the Washington Post
"Vladimir Putin has made a mistake invading Crimea, escalating a crisis for Russia that has been brewing for many months. ...  Putin’s move into Crimea appeared to spring from a deeper misjudgment about the reversibility of the process that led to the breakup of Soviet Union in 1991. The further Russia wades into this revanchist strategy, the worse its troubles will become."

Ukraine: Is This How the War on Terror Ends? (Peter Beinart) from the Atlantic
"Rivalry among great powers long characterized international affairs—and now it's back."

Conservatives Have Some Pretty Confused Thoughts About Vladimir Putin These Days (Jason Linkins) from the Huffington Post
"Spend enough time down in the dodgier neighborhoods of our political discourse, and you'll come away with the funny feeling that the most flamboyant critics of the White House and its current occupant maybe don't have a real appreciation for what true "tyranny" and "autocracy" look like."

The U.S. End Game in Afghanistan (Harvey and Jacobson) from Foreign Policy Magazine
"Despite a steady stream of negative press reports coming out of Afghanistan these days, a strong indicator of success was revealed on Monday when ATR Consulting, an independent survey company, released the results of a major survey...  Representing Afghans of various socio-economic, tribal/ethnic, age, and geographical backgrounds, the survey's results indicate that there are larger positive trends emerging in Afghanistan that bode well for Western interests."

The Inflation Obsession (Paul Krugman) from the New York Times
"Historians of the Great Depression have long marveled at the folly of policy discussion at the time. For example, the Bank of England, faced with a devastating deflationary spiral, kept obsessing over the imagined threat of inflation. As the economist Ralph Hawtrey famously observed, “That was to cry ‘Fire, fire!’ in Noah’s flood.” But it turns out that modern monetary officials facing financial crisis were just as obsessed with the wrong thing as their predecessors three generations before."

Closing the D.C. Reality Gap (E.J. Dionne) from the Washington Post 
"The issues discussed at kitchen tables and over back fences relate to getting and keeping good jobs, better educating our children, improving living standards (or, these days, keeping them from falling), and holding families together. The issues that fixate Washington are abstractions such as tax reform, deficit reduction, and whether small government is better than big government. Call the distance between the two sets of priorities the Reality Gap."

Waiting for Jeb (Alexandra Jaffe) from Politico
"The 2016 presidential election is Jeb Bush’s now-or-never-moment. As other potential GOP standard-bearers have been hit by scandal or seen their luster fade, many Republicans desperately want the former Florida governor to get in the race. His allies say he is considering it more seriously than ever before. They believe he could be their Goldilocks candidate: Not too conservative, not too centrist; not too dull, not too unpredictable; not too inexperienced, and not too marred by scandal. In fact, just right."
Not too stupid either -- Jeb is no dummy.  He would force Team Hillary to actually run a good campaign to win.  It would be no cake walk whatsoever.

TREE NUGGET!!
Mystery of the tree that came back from the dead: 40ft fir that was torn out of ground during storms stands itself upright again from the Daily Mail [of the UK]
"Residents left baffled after ten-tonne tree which uprooted in storms returns to upright position.  Tree surgeon believes strong winds could've pushed 40ft fir back upright."