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Monday, April 14, 2014

The Rosey View of a Je- v Hillary Race

Why Hillary v. Jeb Would Be Great for America (Mark McKinnon) from the Daily Beast
"They’re both qualified, respectful of each other (shocker!), and represent the vast majority of middle America. So what’s not to like about another Clinton/Bush race for 2016?"
I actually completely agree with McKinnon's general point here -- and it's one of the reasons why I have all along viewed Bush as Hillary's most serious competition.  But -- note to McKinnon: the GOP base (those who vote in primaries) have little connection to the "vast majority of middle America."  Hillary does -- and in ways I suspect most Republican strategists haven't yet figured into their calculations.  Two examples: Republicans are playing an electoral game that requires that they sustain or increase their percentage of the white vote and the working-class vote in 2016 if they are to have any chance of taking back the White House.  Sorry, but I strongly suspect that Hillary will do MUCH better than Obama among those two demographics. And, thanks to the GOP's voter suppression tactics and their undisguised antipathy to Latino voters, don't look for any substantial drop-off in those two groups, another shift many right-wing analysts are forecasting, again I think incorrectly.

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