Is Putin Losing Control of Ukraine's Pro-Russia Rebels? (Max Fisher) from Vox
"What seems perhaps more likely is that the pro-Russia rebels, buying into their own propaganda, are stepping away from Moscow's control and staged today's attack in spite of the Kremlin's recent efforts to make nice with Ukraine."
8 comments:
I agree with Fisher that, “the range of possible outcomes gets a lot wider and a lot more uncertain”. Perhaps Putin is already regretting his meddling in the Ukrainian independence movement. On the other hand, Putin comes away with the easily defensible Crimea and its vast offshore gas and oil deposits, and Western Ukraine is seriously weakened by its loss of foreign cash. For it is fantastic to think that any Western nation will give Ukraine any serious money now that it has no fuel to trade in return. So far I would say that Russia is the clear victor.
As I will continue to argue on this blog, people’s failure to comprehend energy in general and oil and gas in particular, seems to lead to some rather myopic conclusions. I believe that most of the confusion around energy is due to journalist’s unwillingness to do the work required to understand concepts such as energy density, return on energy invested or the terawatt. I suspect that Putin has a good working knowledge of these concepts.
I suspect you are correct about Putin's knowledge of energy, etc., however I think there ARE other factors which make determining who are the clear winners and losers here more complicated. First, the Crimea is the only viable year-round readily available port for the Russian navy. Second, I do not think it is "fantastic" to think that western nations will not put some serious money into Ukraine. Remember: West Berlin during the Cold War didn't have a lot of oil futures either. Western Europeans have no military capability that they will ever offer up to Ukraine -- but they have ample economic capability combined with a long history of throwing tens of billions of dollars at countries all over the world of far less consequence than Ukraine to their own long-term national security interests.
One other note: I am also somewhat skeptical of Putin's judgment when it comes to latching onto and annexing former Soviet territories. Let's look at the list: Byelorus, the Georgian break-way republics, and Chenchenya. Let's be clear. Russia has doled out hundred of billions of rubles in economic subsidies (never mind the costs of military occupation in the latter two cases), and, for the most part, as several economists have shown, these regions have represented nothing but economic boat anchors for Russia. Energy futures or no, I would look for the Crimea to have the same effect -- especially if Russia is looking to "rebuild" its navy there. In the long-run, Ukraine will not have to do a lot economically to out-perform Russia and its "dead hand" petro-state policies it will impose.
I can certainly see why Putin would want the Black Sea port, even though he really doesn't have a navy, and Nuggestmans makes a strong argument that Russia is a superpower only in its own mind. Yet I don't see how Western Europe would invest in Ukraine ahead of Greece, but it is certainly true that nations can buy their energy and build their brainpower, i.e. Japan and Singapore, that is as long as they can afford that energy.
Yet I assert that recent Chinese and Russian bellicosity is essentially a resource grab. And I also believe that journalists don’t appreciate this fact because they have not comprehended the physics of energy and the geography of hydrocarbons. People seem to blithely assume that energy will be found “somewhere”, or that some new “invention” will solve the problem. These energy myths are perpetuated because nobody bothers to investigate their veracity. I predict that before long the West will suffer an oil shock that will make the others look like a mild inconvenience. This is the point I think the Russians and Chinese are acutely aware of.
In Russia's case, I think their approach to Ukraine is not nearly so carefully thought out or calculated. I sense far more the presence of Putin's id then some longer range concern for resources. Who knows if we will ever know for sure.
Putin’s Doctoral Thesis http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/08/putins-thesis-raw-text/212739/
A lot of people have been killed on both sides in Ukraine. If Putin hadn’t sent in mercenaries they may have had a chance, now it doesn’t look so likely. I don’t think the EU is going to be too keen on incorporating this looming disaster.
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