DAYLEE PICTURE: Dragons Blood trees on the island of Socotra in the Indian Ocean. From National Geographic.
UP-FRONT POLLING NUGGET!!
Battleground Snapshot: Romney Losing Big Ground (Markos Moulitsas) from Daily Kos
"Obama isn't just winning, the trendlines are moving in his direction. Rather than tighten the final week, the opposite is happening."
A related story:
In Election’s Last Weekend, Obama Gains Moderate Momentum As Romney Flails (John Avlon) from the Daily Beast
"After key endorsements by Bloomberg, Powell and others, and a cool-headed response to the Sandy disaster, the president may be peaking at the right time."
Wary of Future, Professionals Leave China in Record Numbers from the New York Times
This fascinating item showcases the multiple ways China's system is failing in the emerging global economy.
"As China’s Communist Party prepares a momentous leadership change in early November, it is losing skilled professionals like Ms. Chen in record numbers. In 2010, the last year for which complete statistics are available, 508,000 Chinese left for the 34 developed countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That is a 45 percent increase over 2000."
After Bailout, Giants Allowed to Dominate the Mortgage Business from Propublica via the New York Times
"Given that housing prices are beaten up and borrowers must put down bigger cushions than in recent years, it is “the most profitable, safest time ever to be a mortgage bank,” says Scott Simon, who is the head of mortgage investing at Pimco."
U.S. Jobs Growth Quickens, Giving Obama Some Relief from Reuters
"U.S. employers stepped up hiring in October and a small increase in the jobless rate was due to more workers restarting their job hunts, a hopeful sign for a lackluster economy that has been a drag on President Barack Obama's re-election bid."
Why the October Jobs Report Is Even Better Than It Looks (Derek Thompson) from the Atlantic
"Bottom line: Whoever wins on Tuesday inherits an economy that is still awfully weak and a jobs recovery that's clearly gaining momentum."
The Other 2012 Election Contest: Which Pollster and Polling Method Will Win? (Harry Enten) from the Guardian [of the UK]
"In such a tight race, competition in the forecasting business is fiercer than ever. Coveted reputations are riding on the outcome. ... I learned a powerful lesson eight years ago: polling averages work. The averages have correctly predicted all state presidential contests except for five since 2000. They have accurately projected every Senate winner, save a few, over the last few years. The state polling averages say Obama is going to win."
The Case for Barack Obama (E.J. Dionne Jr.) from Time Magazine
"The sweep of the Obama coalition represented in that snaking line led my son and me to conclude something else: The President Obama of 2012 may no longer stir the jubilation called forth by the Barack Obama of 2008. But the hope and resolve he spoke of then have not vanished."
High Marks for President Obama on Hurricane Sandy Response from the Washington Post
"President Obama gets sky-high marks for his response to Hurricane Sandy, which cut a brutal path along the country’s East Coast on Monday, according to the latest release of the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll."
The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite (Nate Silver) from the New York Times
"If you are following some of the same people that I do on Twitter, you may have noticed some pushback about our contention that Barack Obama is a favorite (and certainly not a lock) to be re-elected. I haven’t come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the favorite. (There are exceptions.) But there are plenty of people who say that the race is a “tossup.” What I find confounding about this is that the argument we’re making is exceedingly simple. Here it is:"
A Vote for a President to Lead on Climate Change (Michael Bloomberg) from the Bloomberg News Service
"When I step into the voting booth, I think about the world I want to leave my two daughters, and the values that are required to guide us there. The two parties’ nominees for president offer different visions of where they want to lead America. [...] One sees climate change as an urgent problem that threatens our planet; one does not. I want our president to place scientific evidence and risk management above electoral politics."
Team Romney Thought Obama's Strategy Was Flawed; It Wasn't (Noam Scheiber) from the New Republic
"The RealClearPolitics polling average, the choice barometer of Republicans, shows Obama coughing up 5.2 percentage points in Virginia since his September peak and 4.4 points in Florida, but only 3.3 in Ohio. Ohio is the only one of the three where RCP shows Obama ahead as of this writing. What explains this? It would seem to be that most exotic of political specimens, the working-class Ohio voter."
Obama Reacts to Romney’s Risky Late Ad Buys (James Warren) from the Daily Beast
"Romney is throwing long in states thought to be out of his reach. James Warren reports on Team Obama’s reaction—and their ad-buy edge."
Obama Can Thank Early Negative Ads for His Advantage: The President has a Clearer Path to Victory than Mitt Romney (Charlie Cook) from National Journal
"... after the debates, particularly the first one, many undecideds moved his way. But the ranks of new Romney supporters are smaller and more hesitant in the swing states than in the other states, where viewers didn’t witness the hits on his image inflicted by President Obama’s campaign and Priorities USA, the leading Democratic super PAC."
Florida GOPer Operative Frets About Early Vote (Markos Moulitsas) from Daily Kos
"Conclusion: the Democrat turnout machine in the county has been very effective and they are cleaning our clock. Even if Romney wins the state (likely based on polls), the turnout deficit in PBC will affect our local races."
The Final Reckoning (David Brooks) from the New York Times
"No one is fair to President Obama. People grade him against tougher standards than any other politician. But his innate ability justifies that high standard. These are the standards he properly set for himself. If re-elected, he’d be free from politics. It’d be interesting to see if he returns to his earlier largeness. President Obama began big but is ending small. If he’s re-elected, would he reach the high standards he once set for himself?"
Romney's Window In Ohio Is Closing (Nate Cohn) from the New Republic
"...the polls suggest that Obama holds the votes necessary to win the Buckeye State and the presidency. If the polls look the same heading into Election Day, undecided voters wouldn't be enough to sway the outcome of the state and Romney’s chances would hinge on low Democratic turnout or his ability to peel away Obama supporters. If there was more time between now and November 6, perhaps Romney would stand a chance of mounting a comeback. But the space between Obama's share of the vote and 49 percent isn't the only window that's closing; Romney is nearly out of time."
2012 Polls And The Long-Dormant 'Incumbent Rule' (Mark Blumenthal) from the Huffington Post
"The arguments are based on what campaign pollsters used to call the "incumbent rule," the idea that when an officeholder seeks reelection, undecided voters would break decisively to challengers in the final days of the campaign. The problem is that such late shifts have become increasingly rare. They may never have been much of a factor in close presidential races and show few empirical signs of occurring among the undecided voters of 2012."
IN-SEN: Joe Donnelly Building Lead In Indiana, Polls Show from the Huffington Post
"Indiana Democrat Joe Donnelly shows signs of pulling ahead of Richard Mourdock in the closely fought race to replace Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.). Donnelly leads, 47 percent to 36 percent, according to a Howey/DePauw University Battleground Poll released Friday morning."
Very few predicted that the Democrat would have ANY chance in heavily Republican Indiana. Good news!