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Friday, January 16, 2015

Who is Throwing His Hat in for 2016?!

The Selling of Mitt 3.0 from Politico
"Romney is promising he’ll be ‘different’ this time. ... In meetings with and individual calls to donors, supporters and former staffers, Romney is making it clear that he is likely to run, putting his time frame for a decision at “weeks, not months.”"
WOW!  This could be quite a development if Romney really does this.  I'm pretty confident in saying that Jeb Bush is clearly looking to run in 2016 -- as is Chris Christie and Marco Rubio [we'll call these guys Team A].  If Mitt throws in his hat as well, in my opinion it will SERIOUSLY imperil the chances that any of these guys will get the nomination -- and substantively increase the chances of nutcakes like Cruz, Paul, Perry, and Huckabee [we'll call these folks Team B] -- EVEN as it makes the money game much more complicated for the latter group. Why?  In a Bush verses team A [sans Romney] matchup, hands down Bush has the edge in terms of money, contacts, and let me just say it: smarts.  This guy has been running the best stealth campaign I have EVER seen.  The rest of Team A [again without Romney] would be hard pressed to match Bush in name recognition, money, networking, and, simply stated, their own already obvious weaknesses.  PUT ROMNEY IN THE MIX, though, and suddenly things get way more interesting -- because Romney also has the money and a formidable network of his own already in place.  Also, in combination with the rest of Team A the pool of campaign talent and big donor money will be diluted [Wall Street money would be split all kinds of ways amongst Team A].  Normally, this would lead to favoring the more right wing candidate in the race [see the Goldwater nomination in 1964] -- but in Team B one can see a junior version of the same dynamic shaping up.  Not only will the big donor money be split multiple ways in Team B but there will be LESS of it due to the prominent, networked-in Wall Street folks in Team A. If we get anything like a Team A [with Romney] and Team B nomination race, it will be an AMAZING nomination contest next year.  It leaves me wondering if Romney's trial balloons aren't an effort to drive some people out in the Team A category.  Stay tuned. -- Nuggetsman

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