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Monday, July 21, 2014

TODAY'S BIG NUGGET: The Impact of Black Voters in the South

Black Southern Voters, Poised to Play a Historic Role from the New York Times
"Nearly five decades after the passage of the Voting Rights Act, black voters in the South are poised to play a pivotal role in this year’s midterm elections. If Democrats win the South and hold the Senate, they will do so because of Southern black voters."
Here's the key nugget in this story: "Democrats lamented low black turnout for decades, but Southern black turnout today rivals or occasionally exceeds that of white voters." It is my sense that most polling (which relies heavily on past models of voter turnout and demographics) understates or will understate the level of African American turnout.  The main reason I expect higher than normal voter turnout this Fall is because of the voter suppression tactics of the GOP.  Republicans have not only been too brazen and transparent in their attempts to suppress minority voting, they have underestimated the "blacklash" that is headed their way.  The Cochran primary in Mississippi should give some the heads up on this -- but the story is really coming in November.  In my view, just as social security has historically been a "third rail" for voting seniors, so the 1965 Voting rights Act is that for African Americans -- and what GOPers in the south and elsewhere are doing stinks of a 21st century version of Jim Crow.  Not going back.

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